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What this site's numbers actually measure, and how far they can be trusted -- checked against the record.

+6.1+2.2-20.8-3.1
Is the bout after a knockout really the dangerous one?
After a stoppage loss the residual is -8.3; after a decision loss, -7.9. The knockout-specific gap changes sign with the settings, so it is not claimed here. What was left was something larger.
Updated 2026-09-27
+18.0+11.1-7.3+5.7
Are unbeaten fighters better than their rating?
Unbeaten fighters beat their prediction by +12.3 points; fighters who have already lost come in at -1.4. This is what that gap turns out to be about.
Updated 2026-09-26
-54.0-17.2
Does a lay-off cost you the comeback?
Checked on 75,168 corner rows. The raw win rate runs 86.5% to 32.5%, but that figure moves with the population; holding the rating level it is 92.2% to 75.0%.
Updated 2026-09-24
+10.7-9.0
The three rounds that disappeared
After a death in 1982, world title fights went from fifteen rounds to twelve. We measured what changed, across a hundred thousand bouts.
Updated 2026-09-21
55.0%93.5%
Can one rating predict a hundred years of fights?
90,405 bouts, from 1905 to 2026. We measured how well this site's own numbers predict them.
Updated 2026-09-21
Methodology
Where the data comes from, how the rating thinks, what the numbers mean, who is ranked, how updates run -- and what this ranking cannot do.